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City:Chieti IT
Personal Data:Male, born: January 26 1975
Membership23years 140days ago.
Last Login5years 357days ago.
Last Move9years 149days ago.
Falconfab is currently Offline!Send a mail to Falconfab


Message header
Area/Game:General
Topic:Suggestions, improvement, critics
Subject:Re: ELO evaluation System
Posted by: Falconfab - 15years 285days ago.
Message text
scotireb wrote:
Bombadil wrote:
markrendl wrote:
Falconfab wrote:
Hi pilots,
since i frequented this site the first time i'm asking for a better scoring system that could indicate the real strengt of a player. I feel this as a must!
The statistics make fakes. For two reasons, first of all, you don't know witch scenario and plane are used, even if much has been done. But the second reason is that you don't know the real power of people against he played... there are good pilots, great pilots ad bad pilots... but a kill is alwais a kill.
The best solution, in my opinion, is to have a self-adaptive evalutation system. the system should compare the strenght of the two players and make a table, if the "strong player One" wins it would give him few points, if the "weak player Two" wins give him many points. In case of even game give few points to the weaker player. In the mean time, the loser player would lose the same ammount of points the winning would have.

Chess players use the Elo rating system that, even if not perfect, is much better than simple statistics!

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system


An interesting concept, but given the number - and variety - of scenarios, I think it would be really tough to calculate. For example, some people play a lot of 1 vs 1 matches and others gravitate toward large scale matches. Quantifying and assigning valid weights to all the possible variables would be a major undertaking. However, I'm not a mathematician, so what do I know ?

markrendl


I agree with mark. A key vairable for me is Game Size. In a 1:1 game you can only loose to one other pilot (using a point syetem to etermine a 'winner'). In a 4:4 game you can 'loose' to Seven other pilots. Another thing that effects 'Winning' is if a given pilot tends to routinely fly the stronger aircraft.
Early on when I found this site I looked at those factors and in my personal assessment I look at a player who has about a 30% won/loss ratio as holding his own. That evaluation might not hold up in relation to to my ideas from above specialy if a given pilot really skews by not playing other than 1:1 or never takes a weak plane, but I'm not sure how much of that really goes on. That assessment may not hold water. Each of us has opinions.
I agree with Mark that the math to Falconfabs breakdown would be overwhelming for this site. A column on the "Old Stats Page" showing W/L percentage might be helpful and interesting, and not to hard to implement.


A mathmatical formula could be applied in standard games (excluding the luck factor) to determin pilot skill but would not work with advanced games. A more useful and simple salution might be to add on the players ID page the % of wins to losses, % of kills to deaths and their average die roll.


That's what i say... statistics are fake! % of winning rate is so different if you usually play vs 7 players than if you play vs 1! Even killing ratio is fake, if you play against rookies 1 vs 1 or with a better plane or... or...
my idea is to have a scoring system based on:
ELO personal ratio
AND
ELO scenario ratio.

I mean a table like the following (numbers are only an example)

Player ONE - ELO 1200 (rookie)
Player TWO - ELO 1200 (rookie)
Player TREE - ELO 1600 (veteran)

Scenario ALFA 1VS1
Winning ratio (fist player) - 25%
Losing ratio (fist player) - 25%
Even ratio - 50%
ONE Vs TWO

_____ Win Even Lose
ONE +50 +25 -50
TWO +50 +25 -50

ONE Vs TREE

_____ Win Even Lose
ONE +90 +50 -10
TREE +10 -50 -90


  • As you can see this is the standar ELO System, based ONLY on the strenght of pilots(that's because the senario is "even")


    Scenario BRAVO 1VS1
    Winning ratio (fist player) - 10%
    Losing ratio (fist player) - 40%
    Even ratio - 50%
    ONE Vs TWO
    _____ Win Even Lose
    ONE +80 +25 -20
    TWO +20 +25 -80

    ONE Vs TREE

    _____ Win Even Lose
    ONE +50 +25 -50
    TREE +50 +25 -50

    TREE Vs ONE
    _____ Win Even Lose
    ONE +95 +70 -5
    TWO +5 -20 -95

    This is for ONE Vs ONE scenarios.

    For many VS many scenarios would change nothing. The ELO would be the SUM of all ELOs, and Elo Lost would be directly divided between losers as Elo gain would be divided between winners.





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    Messages thread
    Posting elapsed timePosted bySubject

    15years 287days Falconfab [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
    15years 287days markrendl Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
    15years 286days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
    15years 286days Bombadil Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
     15years 286days scotireb Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
      15years 286days Bombadil Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
      15years 286days markrendl Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
      15years 286days GraysGhost Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
       15years 261days BlueDragon Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
      15years 285days TXWard Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
      15years 285days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
      15years 285days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
       15years 285days Bombadil Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
    15years 261days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
    15years 261days BlueDragon Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
     15years 261days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
      15years 261days BlueDragon Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
       15years 260days TXWard Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
        15years 260days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
         15years 260days BlackSheep Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
          15years 260days Bombadil Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
           15years 260days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
            15years 259days Bombadil Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
             15years 259days Falconfab Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
              15years 259days BlackSheep Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
               15years 258days Bombadil Re: [IDEAS] ELO evaluation System
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