Message text GraysGhost wrote:
Hi Gray,
let's see if I can explain it 
First of all, you got 8R damage, so we have to draw 8 Red Chits.
It is a Standard game: special damages are not used so we have only 24 possible red chits.
There are 4 Tails, 4 Engine, 8 Fuselage and 8 Wings chits.
In your case, all engine hits will be converted to tail hits, so we have 8 Tails, 8 Fuselage and 8 Wings.
That's 1/3 chance of getting a tail hit each time we draw a chit.
You said you got 4x4 and 3x3 tail hits.
Red tail chits can only be 3 and 4 so no surprise in the amount of damage per chit.
Also, there is the same number of 3 chits and 4 chits to be chosen (usually 2x3 and 2x4, but in your case it's 4x3 and 4x4 because of engine conversion).
So the distribution of 3 and 4 looks good too, out of seven chits, you had about half 3 and half 4 chits.
Now, last thing: we said earlier we had 1/3 chance of getting a tail hit everytime we draw a chit and we got 7 tail hits out of 8R.
How common is that?
Choosing 8 chits with only 3 possible "flavour" of chits (tail, fuselage, wings - all sharing the same chances) should be, I think, what is called in mathemathics an 8-combination with repetition allowed from a set of 3 elements.
The total possible combinations in our case is 45, listing possibilities like getting 3 tail 5 fuselage and 0 wings or 2 tails 2 fuselage 6 wings and so on.
Out of 45, how many 7-tail combinations we have?
Well, if we have exactly 7 tails, then we have either drawn a fuselage or a wing as 8th chit, so we have 2 possibilites.
So it's 2/45 chance of getting exactly 7 tails. Obviously we could also draw a tail as last chit (8 tails!), so we could say that we have 3/45 chances of getting at least 7 tails.
2/45 and 3/45 mean about 4.4% and 6.7% chance of happening so they are uncommon but not that much rare.
I do not see the damage you received in the other games so I cannot comment on them.
However, after all this long text, the conclusion is the following: you do not have just "2 tail chits" in the box, in that condition you have 8 tail chits out of 24, so is definitely more common than expected.
|
|
|
Donate
Leagues
Gonzaga
Blue Max
Cartagena
Wooden Ships...
King Me!
VampiRing
