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| City: | Winnipeg, MB  | | Personal Data: | Male, | | Membership | 22years 183days ago. | | Last Login | 3years 35days ago. | | Last Move | 3years 157days ago. | TnT is currently  | Send a mail to TnT |
| | Message text Ah, the wonders of statistics.
It is not a 70% chance of drawing the chit. It is just probability catching up with you.
If we draw one chit, there is a 2/36 chance we get the PK or EXPLODED chit.
But, then, we get shot again. The probability that we draw a dreaded chit is again 2/36. But the probability that NEITHER draw was an evil chit is different.
Number of Draws vs Probability of PK/EXPLODE
1 0.055555556
5 0.248581157
10 0.435369723
15 0.57572617
20 0.68119265
25 0.76044215
30 0.819991717
So, we see that after about 30 independent chit draws, there is over an 80% chance one of the evil chits has been drawn. This is worse if we draw more than one chit at a time. Assuming we draw four chits at a time
Number of Draws vs Probability of PK/EXPLODE
1 0.212698413
5 0.697513752
10 0.90850207
15 0.972323134
20 0.991628129
25 0.997467624
30 0.999233991
This is much worse. With just one draw of four chits, there is a 20% chance we get one of these evil chits (because the chance of not drawing it is (34/36)*(33/35)*(32/34)*(31/33) - i.e. the (number of good chits we can draw)/(number of chits left)
So, yeah, it may seem high, but after lots of chit draws, the simple 2/36 probability catches up with you. The secret. Don't take lots of shots. And certainly don't let anyone take shots that let them draw multiple chits.
Caveat: I a not a statistician, nor do I play one on TV. Actual numbers may vary inversely with your skill and should (but for some reason do not) increase dramatically when you stall...
--- Message edited by TnT |
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