Ogrebait2 wrote:
Blue Dragon,
I know you have already looked at this once, but game 23435 is still becalmed. I'm having a hard time believing this is simply bad rolls. Could you check it again?
Ogre
Last time wind changed into becalmed was on Turn 51.
Since then, 13 wind rolls have been done, 1 every 3 turns, so 51 + 3*13 => last roll on Turn 90.
This scenario has "Wind change number" = 5, so every 3 turns a dice is rolled and if it's 5 or more, then there will be two more rolls on the Wind Direction and Velocity tables.
5+ on a dice means 1/3 chance that these two rolls will be done.
On the Velocity table:
1-2 = Wind drops 1 number
3-4 = Wind does not change
5-6 = Wind increase 1 number
As the wind is becalmed, only 5+ is a useful result.
So you need 5+ on the first roll and 5+ again on the Velocity table. That's a 1/3*1/3 = 1/9 chance of wind increasing force or about 11% chance.
On the other hand, there's 8/9 (88%) chance of wind staying becalmed.
How common is to "fail" 13 rolls and have becalmed wind for 39 turns?
That's 8/9^13 => about 20% chance!
So while 13 rolls (39 turns!!) is really a lot of turns, it's not that uncommon to have the wind not increase during that time 
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